Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.85 – 82.21

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.8 ±18.1

7439Qubit Robotics

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 19.27Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 22.48Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9264HUNTERS ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 26.1Event APEX 9.1Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.1 ±19.7

10425WhiteFox

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 19.84Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7035MEF Thunders

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 20.55Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 41.82Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7439, 10234, 9264

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7439, 10234, 9264

Auto

5.5 12%

Teleop

25.4 57%

Endgame

13.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10425, 7035, 8084

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10425, 7035, 8084

Auto

15.2 17%

Teleop

45.8 51%

Endgame

29.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.9pts

Blue projected score82.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.4
Score range: 27–106
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.8Season APEX161.1

5.5Auto15.2

25.4Teleop45.8

13.4Endgame29

138Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	37	6
endgame	14	5
foul	0	0
total	71	28

Result

Final score

71 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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