Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 132

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.9 ±20.9

11382INTERHERMES

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 10.12Rank 37Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -10.07Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10623AY YILDIZ ROBOTİM

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -0.59Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.6 ±15.6

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 21.62Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 90.98Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 19.4Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11382, 10906, 10623

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11382, 10906, 10623

Auto

0.4 0%

Teleop

-10.0 91%

Endgame

-1.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8158, 9692, 7298

/ 100 compat

Projected

132 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8158, 9692, 7298

Auto

14.8 12%

Teleop

76.7 60%

Endgame

36.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.51 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-0.5pts

Blue projected score132pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -132
Score range: -24–156
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.9Season APEX392.6

0.4Auto14.8

-10Teleop76.7

-1.4Endgame36.4

85Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	28
teleop	9	32
endgame	6	30
foul	5	5
total	27	95

Result

Final score

27 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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