Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.31 – 93.42

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.9 ±18.7

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX -11.15Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10692GOLDEN APPLE

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 11.27Rank 38Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 297.19Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.5 ±19.4

8092Greatest of All Times

Provisional

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 11.96Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 60.13Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11303BEZOAR ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 21.33Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8263, 10692, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8263, 10692, 6459

Auto

34.6 12%

Teleop

172.3 59%

Endgame

85.4 29%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8092, 10951, 11303

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8092, 10951, 11303

Auto

16.0 16%

Teleop

51.9 53%

Endgame

29.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score297.3pts

Blue projected score93.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.9
Score range: 69–321
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.9Season APEX145.5

34.6Auto16

172.3Teleop51.9

85.4Endgame29.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	19
teleop	223	59
endgame	81	33
foul	5	15
total	363	126

Result

Final score

363 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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