Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.32 – 42.55

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.1 ±20.9

7758MEVOLUTION

Provisional

Season APEX 17.2Event APEX 3.62Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7536ANKA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 85.6Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11389ŞAL RoboRage

Provisional

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 8.1Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.2 ±15.9

8784HEVSEL

Provisional

Season APEX 18.8Event APEX -2.22Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 27.44Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 17.33Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7758, 7536, 11389

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7758, 7536, 11389

Auto

15.5 20%

Teleop

49.2 64%

Endgame

12.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8784, 9545, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8784, 9545, 6232

Auto

15.9 64%

Teleop

8.4 34%

Endgame

0.7 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.3pts

Blue projected score42.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.8
Score range: 19–121
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 132.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.1Season APEX229.2

15.5Auto15.9

49.2Teleop8.4

12.1Endgame0.7

105Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	34
teleop	65	65
endgame	16	6
foul	0	5
total	98	110

Result

Final score

98 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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