Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.88 – 112.57

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

44 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 68.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±19.2

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 52.44Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX -3.87Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 49.31Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.9 ±19.4

7748TECHTOLIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 60.99Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10675Energize

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 28.37Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9694TUBITECH

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 23.21Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10932, 11371, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10932, 11371, 10415

Auto

24.5 26%

Teleop

45.4 48%

Endgame

25.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7748, 10675, 9694

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7748, 10675, 9694

Auto

27.4 28%

Teleop

47.3 48%

Endgame

23.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.9pts

Blue projected score112.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.7
Score range: 74–137
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 135.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX223.9

24.5Auto27.4

45.4Teleop47.3

25.5Endgame23.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	14
teleop	17	6
endgame	4	10
foul	0	0
total	44	30

Result

Final score

44 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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