Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

428.48 – 53.85

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

385 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.5 ±15.6

8264ATA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX -7.17Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 398.09Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 37.56Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.5 ±13.9

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 11.3Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 32.87Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 9.68Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8264, 9483, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

428.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8264, 9483, 9024

Auto

58.2 14%

Teleop

253.6 61%

Endgame

103.4 25%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7576, 10604, 9043

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7576, 10604, 9043

Auto

8.8 15%

Teleop

38.6 65%

Endgame

12.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score428.5pts

Blue projected score53.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 374.6
Score range: 30–452
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 133.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.5Season APEX250.5

58.2Auto8.8

253.6Teleop38.6

103.4Endgame12.4

7Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	13
teleop	208	3
endgame	78	6
foul	20	15
total	385	37

Result

Final score

385 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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