Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.13 – 29.13

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 10

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±18.7

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 80.26Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8784HEVSEL

Provisional

Season APEX 18.8Event APEX -1.17Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11303BEZOAR ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 23.04Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165 ±19.4

8264ATA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 4.17Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8092Greatest of All Times

Provisional

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 4.88Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 20.08Rank 39Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9692, 8784, 11303

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9692, 8784, 11303

Auto

16.5 17%

Teleop

54.2 57%

Endgame

24.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8264, 8092, 10542

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8264, 8092, 10542

Auto

3.0 11%

Teleop

22.5 86%

Endgame

0.6 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.1pts

Blue projected score29.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73
Score range: 2–129
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 152.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.8Season APEX165

16.5Auto3

54.2Teleop22.5

24.3Endgame0.6

55Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	1
teleop	48	7
endgame	33	2
foul	5	0
total	96	10

Result

Final score

96 – 10

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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