Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.32 – 332.09

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.2 ±19.3

11389ŞAL RoboRage

Provisional

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 2.15Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10425WhiteFox

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 16.35Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 22.82Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.5 ±15.9

6415Gultepe Robotics Team 6415

Provisional

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX -2.28Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 43.62Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 290.75Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11389, 10425, 9545

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.3 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11389, 10425, 9545

Auto

12.6 36%

Teleop

30.4 87%

Endgame

-8.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6415, 8084, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6415, 8084, 6459

Auto

40.5 13%

Teleop

180.8 58%

Endgame

93.1 30%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.38 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.3pts

Blue projected score332.1pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -290.8
Score range: 17–356
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.2Season APEX451.5

12.6Auto40.5

30.4Teleop180.8

-8.2Endgame93.1

48Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	36
teleop	23	182
endgame	12	135
foul	10	0
total	82	353

Result

Final score

82 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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