Qualification · Qualification 38
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
219.72 – 10.74
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
266 – 54
Prediction correct · off by 44.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.5 ±16.9
Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 225.1Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.8Event APEX -11.86Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89
8092Greatest of All Times
Provisional
Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 6.48Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100.6 ±19.4
Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 16.22Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
10906Lunea Lumen
Provisional
Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -20.18Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
11303BEZOAR ROBOTICS
Provisional
Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 14.7Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10131, 11371, 8092
77
/ 100 compatProjected
219.7 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 10131, 11371, 8092
Auto
21.2 10%
Teleop
134.9 63%
Endgame
58.4 27%
Strengths
- · 10131 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10234, 10906, 11303
3
/ 100 compatProjected
10.7 pts
~0.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 10234, 10906, 11303
Auto
3.2 20%
Teleop
-1.2 0%
Endgame
14.3 88%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.34
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score219.7pts
Blue projected score10.7pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 14%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 209
- Score range
- -13–244
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
357.5Season APEX100.6
21.2Auto3.2
134.9Teleop-1.2
58.4Endgame14.3
68Consistency126
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 26 | 15 |
| teleop | 187 | 14 |
| endgame | 48 | 5 |
| foul | 5 | 20 |
| total | 266 | 54 |
Result
Final score
266 – 54
Prediction correct · off by 44.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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