Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.15 – 399.9

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 510

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109.2 ±20

7758MEVOLUTION

Provisional

Season APEX 17.2Event APEX 9.44Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 41.37Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11404The Power of Skopje

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 18.34Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.1 ±16.7

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 381.25Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11382INTERHERMES

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX -10.23Rank 37Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 28.88Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7758, 9024, 11404

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~0.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7758, 9024, 11404

Auto

12.0 17%

Teleop

47.1 66%

Endgame

12.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9483, 11382, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9483, 11382, 10415

Auto

65.7 18%

Teleop

211.1 58%

Endgame

89.7 24%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.33 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.1pts

Blue projected score399.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -330.7
Score range: 46–423
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 549 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109.2Season APEX506.1

12Auto65.7

47.1Teleop211.1

12.5Endgame89.7

51Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	85
teleop	14	300
endgame	7	125
foul	10	0
total	39	510

Result

Final score

39 – 510

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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