Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.27 – 74.38

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.5 ±16.3

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 24.72Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 34.53Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10623AY YILDIZ ROBOTİM

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -0.98Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.5 ±19.2

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 62.19Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 12.68Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX -0.49Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6232, 10604, 10623

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6232, 10604, 10623

Auto

2.6 4%

Teleop

43.6 72%

Endgame

14.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10932, 9043, 8263

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10932, 9043, 8263

Auto

13.3 17%

Teleop

27.7 36%

Endgame

35.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.3pts

Blue projected score74.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.1
Score range: 35–97
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 97 vs event baseline 130.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.5Season APEX191.5

2.6Auto13.3

43.6Teleop27.7

14.3Endgame35.4

57Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	18
teleop	26	13
endgame	16	13
foul	5	0
total	53	44

Result

Final score

53 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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