Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.59 – 46.85

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.4 ±20.3

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -15.05Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8264ATA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX -3.52Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7536ANKA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 90.16Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.4 ±21.4

9694TUBITECH

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 30Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9264HUNTERS ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 26.1Event APEX 11.93Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11389ŞAL RoboRage

Provisional

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 4.92Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10906, 8264, 7536

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10906, 8264, 7536

Auto

3.1 6%

Teleop

35.3 68%

Endgame

13.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9694, 9264, 11389

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9694, 9264, 11389

Auto

22.6 62%

Teleop

34.4 95%

Endgame

-20.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.6pts

Blue projected score46.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.7
Score range: 23–96
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 134.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.4Season APEX139.4

3.1Auto22.6

35.3Teleop34.4

13.2Endgame-20.6

54Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	17
teleop	13	22
endgame	0	5
foul	15	5
total	33	49

Result

Final score

33 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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