Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.16 – 392.86

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.3 ±12.2

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 9.53Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 5.09Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 28.54Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.6 ±18.7

11303BEZOAR ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 17.57Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11404The Power of Skopje

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 5.52Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 369.77Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8158, 9545, 8084

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.2 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8158, 9545, 8084

Auto

18.3 33%

Teleop

41.5 75%

Endgame

-4.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11303, 11404, 9483

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11303, 11404, 9483

Auto

61.2 16%

Teleop

233.9 60%

Endgame

92.2 24%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.36 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.2pts

Blue projected score392.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -349.7
Score range: 20–416
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 565 vs event baseline 129.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.3Season APEX448.6

18.3Auto61.2

41.5Teleop233.9

-4.4Endgame92.2

110Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	75
teleop	45	271
endgame	60	78
foul	10	10
total	131	434

Result

Final score

131 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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