Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.95 – 70.86

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 61.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.8 ±18.8

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 21.08Rank 39Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 42.62Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 83.25Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.3 ±21.4

10425WhiteFox

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 21.03Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 36.08Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 13.75Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10542, 7298, 10932

/ 100 compat

Projected

147 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10542, 7298, 10932

Auto

29.2 20%

Teleop

81.8 57%

Endgame

33.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10425, 10415, 8263

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10425, 10415, 8263

Auto

23.6 34%

Teleop

15.6 23%

Endgame

30.1 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147pts

Blue projected score70.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.1
Score range: 47–171
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 132.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.8Season APEX175.3

29.2Auto23.6

81.8Teleop15.6

33Endgame30.1

0Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	11
teleop	19	25
endgame	8	13
foul	0	5
total	40	54

Result

Final score

40 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 61.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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