Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

498.01 – 400.48

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

603 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 88.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.3 ±14.7

9694TUBITECH

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 15.3Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 291.4Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 191.31Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491.2 ±18.7

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 3.21Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 389.78Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6415Gultepe Robotics Team 6415

Provisional

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 7.49Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9694, 6459, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

498 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9694, 6459, 10131

Auto

69.1 14%

Teleop

302.8 62%

Endgame

112.6 23%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8263, 9483, 6415

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8263, 9483, 6415

Auto

68.5 18%

Teleop

221.4 58%

Endgame

90.3 24%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score498pts

Blue projected score400.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.5
Score range: 373–525
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 931 vs event baseline 152.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.3Season APEX491.2

69.1Auto68.5

302.8Teleop221.4

112.6Endgame90.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	48
teleop	352	148
endgame	123	117
foul	40	15
total	603	328

Result

Final score

603 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 88.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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