Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.18 – 35.6

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.1 ±16.9

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 85.21Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10675Energize

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 33.86Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 13.11Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.9 ±19.4

7758MEVOLUTION

Provisional

Season APEX 17.2Event APEX 4.15Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -6.06Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9694TUBITECH

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 37.51Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9692, 10675, 9043

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9692, 10675, 9043

Auto

15.0 12%

Teleop

79.1 62%

Endgame

33.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7758, 10234, 9694

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7758, 10234, 9694

Auto

18.9 57%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

14.1 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.2pts

Blue projected score35.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.6
Score range: 12–156
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 133.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.1Season APEX122.9

15Auto18.9

79.1Teleop0

33.7Endgame14.1

92Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	19
teleop	74	32
endgame	38	4
foul	0	5
total	125	60

Result

Final score

125 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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