Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.15 – 0

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.9 ±20

7035MEF Thunders

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 29.54Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 45.07Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -11.46Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.1 ±19.4

11303BEZOAR ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -4.87Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6415Gultepe Robotics Team 6415

Provisional

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX -1.13Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 0.76Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7035, 9024, 10906

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7035, 9024, 10906

Auto

0.7 1%

Teleop

38.8 70%

Endgame

16.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11303, 6415, 8158

/ 100 compat

Projected

-5.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11303, 6415, 8158

Auto

-8.4 100%

Teleop

-10.6 100%

Endgame

14.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.2pts

Blue projected score-5.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.2
Score range: -23–86
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.9Season APEX259.1

0.7Auto-8.4

38.8Teleop-10.6

16.3Endgame14.6

42Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	18	19
endgame	18	14
foul	5	5
total	58	55

Result

Final score

58 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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