Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.84 – 9.12

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.9 ±18.7

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 29.03Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11389ŞAL RoboRage

Provisional

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -11.38Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 97.19Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168 ±18.2

11404The Power of Skopje

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 14.76Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 6.28Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX -11.92Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8263, 11389, 9692

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8263, 11389, 9692

Auto

14.4 15%

Teleop

35.6 37%

Endgame

46.6 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11404, 9043, 11371

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11404, 9043, 11371

Auto

12.5 100%

Teleop

0.7 6%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.8pts

Blue projected score9.1pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.7
Score range: -14–138
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.9Season APEX168

14.4Auto12.5

35.6Teleop0.7

46.6Endgame-1.9

90Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	86	5
endgame	0	0
foul	5	5
total	115	23

Result

Final score

115 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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