Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.39 – 101.5

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.3 ±19

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 37.68Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 32.59Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7758MEVOLUTION

Provisional

Season APEX 17.2Event APEX 10.12Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±19.4

8264ATA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 12.5Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10692GOLDEN APPLE

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 44.14Rank 38Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 44.86Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8084, 10415, 7758

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8084, 10415, 7758

Auto

14.8 22%

Teleop

8.7 13%

Endgame

45.3 66%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8264, 10692, 7576

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8264, 10692, 7576

Auto

12.6 12%

Teleop

89.1 85%

Endgame

3.1 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.4pts

Blue projected score101.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.1
Score range: 57–125
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 129.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.3Season APEX199.9

14.8Auto12.6

8.7Teleop89.1

45.3Endgame3.1

114Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	1
teleop	43	13
endgame	20	9
foul	0	5
total	96	28

Result

Final score

96 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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