Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221 – 159.47

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.4 ±16.4

10675Energize

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 13.22Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 171.91Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 35.87Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128 ±20.9

10425WhiteFox

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 76.41Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7536ANKA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 55.09Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8784HEVSEL

Provisional

Season APEX 18.8Event APEX 27.97Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10675, 10131, 10951

/ 100 compat

Projected

221 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10675, 10131, 10951

Auto

28.2 13%

Teleop

152.0 72%

Endgame

31.0 15%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10425, 7536, 8784

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10425, 7536, 8784

Auto

23.3 16%

Teleop

91.8 61%

Endgame

34.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.5
Score range: 137–243
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.4Season APEX128

28.2Auto23.3

152Teleop91.8

31Endgame34.4

86Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	16
teleop	218	45
endgame	141	29
foul	15	5
total	417	95

Result

Final score

417 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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