Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
8.54 – 234.98
6%94%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
38 – 312
Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.3 ±13.9
Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 4.86Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 2.69Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 0.99Rank 39Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.3 ±16.9
Season APEX 58.8Event APEX -37.11Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89
7035MEF Thunders
Provisional
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 40.8Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 231.29Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9043, 6232, 10542
10
/ 100 compatProjected
8.5 pts
~0.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 9043, 6232, 10542
Auto
4.1 0%
Teleop
-6.9 100%
Endgame
-1.0 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 18%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11371, 7035, 6459
86
/ 100 compatProjected
235 pts
~2.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 11371, 7035, 6459
Auto
25.6 11%
Teleop
139.6 61%
Endgame
62.4 27%
Strengths
- · 6459 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 18%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.35 · Blue 2.29
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score8.5pts
Blue projected score235pts
Red win probability6%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 18%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -226.4
- Score range
- -13–257
- Upset likelihood
- 6%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
146.3Season APEX433.3
4.1Auto25.6
-6.9Teleop139.6
-1Endgame62.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 44 |
| teleop | 19 | 191 |
| endgame | 5 | 77 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 38 | 312 |
Result
Final score
38 – 312
Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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