Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.38 – 56.14

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

22 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.3 ±18.7

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 76.4Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 9.21Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7758MEVOLUTION

Provisional

Season APEX 17.2Event APEX -13.23Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141 ±17

9264HUNTERS ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 26.1Event APEX 13.24Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 37.93Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 4.97Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9545, 7298, 7758

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9545, 7298, 7758

Auto

24.4 33%

Teleop

40.8 56%

Endgame

8.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9264, 9024, 11371

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9264, 9024, 11371

Auto

10.6 20%

Teleop

29.7 55%

Endgame

13.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.4pts

Blue projected score56.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.2
Score range: 29–99
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 38 vs event baseline 152.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.3Season APEX141

24.4Auto10.6

40.8Teleop29.7

8.1Endgame13.8

46Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	7
teleop	11	8
endgame	2	1
foul	0	0
total	22	16

Result

Final score

22 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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