Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.53 – 96.32

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 9.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.6 ±19.7

11404The Power of Skopje

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 16.78Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 11.3Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6415Gultepe Robotics Team 6415

Provisional

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 18.45Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±16.5

7748TECHTOLIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 91.05Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7298TOROS

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -3.13Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 8.4Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11404, 10604, 6415

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11404, 10604, 6415

Auto

8.0 17%

Teleop

13.4 28%

Endgame

26.2 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7748, 7298, 10234

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7748, 7298, 10234

Auto

14.8 17%

Teleop

43.9 51%

Endgame

27.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.5pts

Blue projected score96.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.8
Score range: 25–118
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.6Season APEX188.3

8Auto14.8

13.4Teleop43.9

26.2Endgame27

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	13
teleop	31	34
endgame	1	29
foul	5	5
total	42	81

Result

Final score

42 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 9.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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