Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.9 – 118.75

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.9 ±18.7

8092Greatest of All Times

Provisional

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX -12.43Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8263Robin

Provisional

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 26.8Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 1.53Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.9 ±16.5

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 39.55Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 2.09Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 77.11Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8092, 8263, 9545

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8092, 8263, 9545

Auto

0.9 6%

Teleop

5.7 41%

Endgame

7.4 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10415, 8158, 7576

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10415, 8158, 7576

Auto

27.8 26%

Teleop

51.3 47%

Endgame

29.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.9pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.8
Score range: -7–142
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.9Season APEX285.9

0.9Auto27.8

5.7Teleop51.3

7.4Endgame29.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	31	18
endgame	15	17
foul	0	0
total	65	51

Result

Final score

65 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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