Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.76 – 130.27

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.2 ±18.7

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 195.31Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10623AY YILDIZ ROBOTİM

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -7.59Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8264ATA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 11.04Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±20.3

11389ŞAL RoboRage

Provisional

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -3.07Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 146.26Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11382INTERHERMES

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX -12.92Rank 37Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10131, 10623, 8264

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10131, 10623, 8264

Auto

22.0 11%

Teleop

132.2 68%

Endgame

39.3 20%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11389, 10932, 11382

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11389, 10932, 11382

Auto

12.8 10%

Teleop

77.4 60%

Endgame

39.7 31%

Strengths

· 10932 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score198.8pts

Blue projected score130.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.5
Score range: 107–222
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.2Season APEX173.9

22Auto12.8

132.2Teleop77.4

39.3Endgame39.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	15
teleop	160	6
endgame	27	5
foul	0	15
total	187	41

Result

Final score

187 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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