Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.62 – 105.12

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 161.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488.3 ±19.3

10692GOLDEN APPLE

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 2.3Rank 38Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10425WhiteFox

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 20.47Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 214.85Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±14.1

7536ANKA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 32.49Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 48.6Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 24.03Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10692, 10425, 9483

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10692, 10425, 9483

Auto

37.5 16%

Teleop

137.7 58%

Endgame

63.2 27%

Strengths

· 9483 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7536, 9692, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7536, 9692, 9024

Auto

7.1 7%

Teleop

58.1 58%

Endgame

34.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.6pts

Blue projected score105.1pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.5
Score range: 83–260
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 665 vs event baseline 119.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488.3Season APEX286.4

37.5Auto7.1

137.7Teleop58.1

63.2Endgame34.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	16
teleop	266	140
endgame	91	44
foul	15	15
total	450	215

Result

Final score

450 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 161.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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