Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.88 – 14.8

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.9 ±16.3

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 74.33Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 21.59Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 34.96Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148 ±20

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 1.75Rank 39Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7758MEVOLUTION

Provisional

Season APEX 17.2Event APEX 23.03Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10675Energize

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -9.98Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8084, 10906, 10604

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8084, 10906, 10604

Auto

10.0 8%

Teleop

71.2 55%

Endgame

49.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10542, 7758, 10675

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10542, 7758, 10675

Auto

6.9 54%

Teleop

2.6 20%

Endgame

3.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.9pts

Blue projected score14.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.1
Score range: -8–154
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.9Season APEX148

10Auto6.9

71.2Teleop2.6

49Endgame3.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	21	19
endgame	27	2
foul	0	0
total	58	34

Result

Final score

58 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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