Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.54 – 204.71

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±16

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 29.54Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7748TECHTOLIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 52.69Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 8.31Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.1 ±15.5

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 1.96Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7035MEF Thunders

Provisional

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 11.51Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 191.24Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10415, 7748, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10415, 7748, 6232

Auto

14.7 17%

Teleop

42.8 50%

Endgame

28.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9545, 7035, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9545, 7035, 10131

Auto

35.6 18%

Teleop

117.3 61%

Endgame

40.8 21%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.5pts

Blue projected score204.7pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.2
Score range: 69–227
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.7Season APEX520.1

14.7Auto35.6

42.8Teleop117.3

28.2Endgame40.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	24
teleop	38	186
endgame	31	17
foul	45	5
total	134	232

Result

Final score

134 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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