Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.71 – 227.64

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 109 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.3 ±18

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 188.81Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11303BEZOAR ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 20.22Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10932Tulpar

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 131.68Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.2 ±15.1

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 131.68Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 67.38Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11382INTERHERMES

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 28.58Rank 37Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6459, 11303, 10932

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6459, 11303, 10932

Auto

52.8 16%

Teleop

207.5 63%

Endgame

70.3 21%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7576, 10951, 11382

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7576, 10951, 11382

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

129.7 58%

Endgame

61.2 27%

Strengths

· 7576 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score340.7pts

Blue projected score227.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.1
Score range: 208–361
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 112.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.3Season APEX195.2

52.8Auto32.7

207.5Teleop129.7

70.3Endgame61.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	15
teleop	232	12
endgame	109	6
foul	0	10
total	374	43

Result

Final score

374 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 109 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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