Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.86 – 75.27

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 77.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.6 ±18

7536ANKA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 48Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9694TUBITECH

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 172.29Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 4.57Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.2 ±16.8

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 4.57Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 48Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10623AY YILDIZ ROBOTİM

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 22.7Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7536, 9694, 11371

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7536, 9694, 11371

Auto

32.9 15%

Teleop

126.6 59%

Endgame

54.0 25%

Strengths

· 9694 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9024, 8084, 10623

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9024, 8084, 10623

Auto

13.0 17%

Teleop

36.6 49%

Endgame

25.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score224.9pts

Blue projected score75.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.6
Score range: 52–248
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.6Season APEX166.2

32.9Auto13

126.6Teleop36.6

54Endgame25.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	3
teleop	41	60
endgame	6	24
foul	15	0
total	82	87

Result

Final score

82 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 77.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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