Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.18 – 77.18

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

11 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.2 ±20

10675Energize

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 36.82Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8158Bosphorus Robotics

Season APEX 156.9Event APEX 3.05Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10906Lunea Lumen

Provisional

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 0.31Rank 40Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117.5 ±16.8

10692GOLDEN APPLE

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 13.91Rank 38Record 1-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 40.92Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 22.35Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10675, 8158, 10906

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10675, 8158, 10906

Auto

10.2 27%

Teleop

10.7 28%

Endgame

16.8 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10692, 10234, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10692, 10234, 6232

Auto

16.9 24%

Teleop

30.3 43%

Endgame

22.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score40.2pts

Blue projected score77.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37
Score range: 13–104
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 48 vs event baseline 152.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.2Season APEX117.5

10.2Auto16.9

10.7Teleop30.3

16.8Endgame22.5

69Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	10
teleop	3	19
endgame	0	8
foul	0	0
total	11	37

Result

Final score

11 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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