Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.73 – 100.17

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.3 ±12.9

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 24.67Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 95.76Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 57.3Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.8 ±12.1

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 29.99Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 16.62Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 53.56Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8151, 9427, 9519

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8151, 9427, 9519

Auto

36.3 21%

Teleop

86.3 49%

Endgame

52.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9079, 11300, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9079, 11300, 8169

Auto

18.3 20%

Teleop

54.5 58%

Endgame

20.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score177.7pts

Blue projected score100.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.6
Score range: 71–207
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.3Season APEX148.8

36.3Auto18.3

86.3Teleop54.5

52.5Endgame20.6

23Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	27
teleop	107	58
endgame	41	61
foul	10	15
total	189	161

Result

Final score

189 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Match videos

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