Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.76 – 92.64

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.3 ±14.6

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 24.19Rank 19Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 40.17Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX 7.4Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.8 ±12.1

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 27.94Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 13.17Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 51.53Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11010, 6014, 8584

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11010, 6014, 8584

Auto

15.8 23%

Teleop

28.0 41%

Endgame

25.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9079, 11300, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9079, 11300, 8169

Auto

16.1 19%

Teleop

49.9 58%

Endgame

19.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.8pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.9
Score range: 44–121
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 158.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.3Season APEX148.8

15.8Auto16.1

28Teleop49.9

25.1Endgame19.5

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	27
teleop	6	75
endgame	0	26
foul	20	5
total	40	133

Result

Final score

40 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Match videos

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