Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.85 – 140.72

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.9 ±13.9

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 10.44Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 23.39Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 19.02Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±11.6

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 63.41Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 42.63Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 34.68Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7742, 7576, 10064

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7742, 7576, 10064

Auto

7.9 20%

Teleop

26.2 65%

Endgame

6.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8079, 10396, 6838

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 10396, 6838

Auto

33.8 27%

Teleop

67.0 53%

Endgame

25.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.9pts

Blue projected score140.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.9
Score range: 24–170
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 158.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.9Season APEX342.6

7.9Auto33.8

26.2Teleop67

6.1Endgame25.5

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	16
teleop	17	121
endgame	20	27
foul	0	30
total	49	194

Result

Final score

49 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Match videos

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