Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.28 – 147.45

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.3 ±12.9

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 20.61Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 91.45Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 54.22Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±11.6

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 65.42Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 44.66Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 37.37Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8151, 9427, 9519

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8151, 9427, 9519

Auto

33.5 20%

Teleop

80.2 49%

Endgame

49.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8079, 10396, 6838

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 10396, 6838

Auto

35.7 28%

Teleop

67.6 52%

Endgame

26.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.3pts

Blue projected score147.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.8
Score range: 119–194
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 157.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.3Season APEX342.6

33.5Auto35.7

80.2Teleop67.6

49.9Endgame26

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	26
teleop	86	69
endgame	47	28
foul	0	0
total	171	123

Result

Final score

171 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Match videos

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