Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

352.22 – 296.75

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 195.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.9 ±10.5

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 1.94Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 202.6Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 147.68Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.8 ±11

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 172.3Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 18.23Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 106.22Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10907, 4481, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10907, 4481, 8725

Auto

60.1 17%

Teleop

198.5 56%

Endgame

92.9 26%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2905, 8084, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2905, 8084, 6417

Auto

39.8 14%

Teleop

180.3 62%

Endgame

69.8 24%

Strengths

· 2905 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score352.2pts

Blue projected score296.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.5
Score range: 268–381
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 158.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697.9Season APEX493.8

60.1Auto39.8

198.5Teleop180.3

92.9Endgame69.8

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	23
teleop	267	137
endgame	79	30
foul	25	0
total	446	0

Result

Final score

446 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 195.3 pts

Match videos

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