Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 36.16

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.4 ±13.3

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 6.24Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX -23.41Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 3.3Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219 ±11.6

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 38.03Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -8.11Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 6.24Rank 22Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7576, 10907, 10064

/ 100 compat

Projected

-13.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7576, 10907, 10064

Auto

-6.5 36%

Teleop

-11.1 61%

Endgame

-0.6 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8084, 6988, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8084, 6988, 6232

Auto

6.0 22%

Teleop

3.1 11%

Endgame

18.1 67%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-13.9pts

Blue projected score36.2pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.2
Score range: -25–61
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.4Season APEX219

-6.5Auto6

-11.1Teleop3.1

-0.6Endgame18.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	5
teleop	15	27
endgame	2	13
foul	15	20
total	38	65

Result

Final score

38 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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