Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.14 – 123.05

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

60 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 47 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.7 ±12.7

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 7.14Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 30.58Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 11.42Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.3 ±12.7

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 86.44Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 10.66Rank 19Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 25.95Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11300, 8169, 6014

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 8169, 6014

Auto

2.6 6%

Teleop

32.0 74%

Endgame

8.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9601, 11010, 6838

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9601, 11010, 6838

Auto

17.5 16%

Teleop

68.4 62%

Endgame

24.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.1pts

Blue projected score123.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.9
Score range: 22–150
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 151.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.7Season APEX169.3

2.6Auto17.5

32Teleop68.4

8.6Endgame24.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	18
teleop	46	8
endgame	10	9
foul	0	5
total	60	40

Result

Final score

60 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 47 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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