Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.68 – 187.99

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 155.7 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 686.5 ±9.8

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 41.43Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 86.86Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 4.39Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.2 ±13.6

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX 13.88Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 87.25Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 86.86Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9427, 4481, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9427, 4481, 6989

Auto

29.1 24%

Teleop

62.6 51%

Endgame

31.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8584, 10396, 9079

/ 100 compat

Projected

188 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8584, 10396, 9079

Auto

21.2 12%

Teleop

119.8 67%

Endgame

37.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.7pts

Blue projected score188pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.3
Score range: 106–215
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 149.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

686.5Season APEX179.2

29.1Auto21.2

62.6Teleop119.8

31.1Endgame37.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	18
teleop	164	9
endgame	53	3
foul	0	5
total	291	35

Result

Final score

291 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 155.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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