Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.84 – 83.88

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398 ±14.8

5553Robo'Lyon

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 9.5Rank 28Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 2.99Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 64.35Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.4 ±15.3

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 22.49Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 40.27Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 21.12Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5553, 10907, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5553, 10907, 8079

Auto

21.1 28%

Teleop

32.3 43%

Endgame

22.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10064, 6838, 8042

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10064, 6838, 8042

Auto

14.3 21%

Teleop

27.0 39%

Endgame

28.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.8pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7
Score range: 48–113
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 159.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398Season APEX143.4

21.1Auto14.3

32.3Teleop27

22.2Endgame28

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	17
teleop	25	19
endgame	7	7
foul	0	0
total	73	43

Result

Final score

73 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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