Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.53 – 381.39

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 431

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.7 ±14.8

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 26.12Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9102CyborgBulls

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 15.46Rank 21Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 47.95Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.5 ±10.4

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 135.64Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 144.07Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 101.68Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9079, 9102, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9079, 9102, 8169

Auto

12.5 15%

Teleop

48.3 59%

Endgame

20.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7632, 8725, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.4 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7632, 8725, 6417

Auto

64.8 17%

Teleop

217.0 58%

Endgame

92.3 25%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.5pts

Blue projected score381.4pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -291.9
Score range: 62–409
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 158.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.7Season APEX553.5

12.5Auto64.8

48.3Teleop217

20.4Endgame92.3

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	80
teleop	17	242
endgame	27	104
foul	5	5
total	68	431

Result

Final score

68 – 431

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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