Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.46 – 195.34

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.2 ±12.2

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 45.02Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 41.69Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 20.75Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.2 ±14.1

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 22.39Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX 5.87Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 167.08Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10396, 6014, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 6014, 8151

Auto

17.1 17%

Teleop

59.3 58%

Endgame

25.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7576, 8584, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7576, 8584, 2905

Auto

34.2 20%

Teleop

106.4 62%

Endgame

30.6 18%

Strengths

· 2905 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.5pts

Blue projected score195.3pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.9
Score range: 79–223
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 157.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.2Season APEX339.2

17.1Auto34.2

59.3Teleop106.4

25.6Endgame30.6

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	29
teleop	44	145
endgame	29	54
foul	0	0
total	94	228

Result

Final score

94 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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