Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

264.26 – 266.93

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 9.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±12.9

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 60.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 62.09Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 142.11Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.2 ±13.9

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 16.83Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 92.07Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 158.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8079, 9519, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 9519, 7632

Auto

52.1 20%

Teleop

142.5 55%

Endgame

63.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8042, 6417, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8042, 6417, 2905

Auto

37.7 14%

Teleop

169.1 62%

Endgame

67.3 25%

Strengths

· 2905 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.3pts

Blue projected score266.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.7
Score range: 234–297
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.1Season APEX483.2

52.1Auto37.7

142.5Teleop169.1

63Endgame67.3

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	61
teleop	160	141
endgame	55	53
foul	0	5
total	277	260

Result

Final score

277 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 9.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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