Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.45 – 185.89

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.3 ±14.5

9102CyborgBulls

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 14.34Rank 21Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 25.62Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 207.49Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±12.2

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 102.8Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 29.01Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 54.08Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9102, 10064, 4481

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9102, 10064, 4481

Auto

32.4 14%

Teleop

139.6 59%

Endgame

62.9 27%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9427, 7576, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9427, 7576, 8169

Auto

38.6 21%

Teleop

100.2 55%

Endgame

43.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score247.5pts

Blue projected score185.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.6
Score range: 158–275
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 157.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.3Season APEX284.8

32.4Auto38.6

139.6Teleop100.2

62.9Endgame43.6

1Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	27
teleop	106	29
endgame	50	14
foul	0	45
total	204	115

Result

Final score

204 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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