Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.74 – 92.87

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±11.6

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 32.75Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 34.22Rank 19Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 31.77Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.5 ±13.3

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 35.25Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 41.95Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 15.67Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6988, 11010, 9079

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6988, 11010, 9079

Auto

15.7 21%

Teleop

38.4 52%

Endgame

19.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6838, 6014, 7742

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6838, 6014, 7742

Auto

21.8 31%

Teleop

27.4 39%

Endgame

20.5 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.7pts

Blue projected score92.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.9
Score range: 64–128
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.4Season APEX162.5

15.7Auto21.8

38.4Teleop27.4

19.3Endgame20.5

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	10
teleop	28	55
endgame	12	16
foul	5	0
total	55	81

Result

Final score

55 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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