Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.53 – 166.28

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

223 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.5 ±14.4

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 138.59Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 18.69Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 6.25Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.9 ±11

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -0.7Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 74.6Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 92.38Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 8042, 8084

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8725, 8042, 8084

Auto

29.3 18%

Teleop

88.3 56%

Endgame

41.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11300, 6989, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 6989, 6417

Auto

26.4 17%

Teleop

92.5 60%

Endgame

36.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.5pts

Blue projected score166.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.7
Score range: 136–194
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 158.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.5Season APEX418.9

29.3Auto26.4

88.3Teleop92.5

41.4Endgame36.2

30Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	37
teleop	132	141
endgame	63	54
foul	0	0
total	223	232

Result

Final score

223 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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