Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.77 – 197.99

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.4 ±13.9

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 60.55Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 34.68Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 72.54Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±11.1

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX -12.66Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 13.48Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 197.17Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9519, 7576, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9519, 7576, 8079

Auto

28.4 19%

Teleop

79.3 54%

Endgame

39.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10907, 8151, 4481

/ 100 compat

Projected

198 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10907, 8151, 4481

Auto

29.3 15%

Teleop

122.5 61%

Endgame

49.1 24%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.8pts

Blue projected score198pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.2
Score range: 140–226
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 156.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.4Season APEX538.9

28.4Auto29.3

79.3Teleop122.5

39.8Endgame49.1

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	50
teleop	88	152
endgame	19	100
foul	0	15
total	153	317

Result

Final score

153 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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