Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.18 – 38.24

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

25 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 22.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 114.3 ±12.7

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 19.22Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 11.78Rank 22Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 22.18Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.8 ±15.8

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 19.13Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5553Robo'Lyon

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 9.46Rank 28Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 9.65Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11300, 6232, 7576

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 6232, 7576

Auto

8.7 25%

Teleop

23.3 67%

Endgame

2.6 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10064, 5553, 7742

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10064, 5553, 7742

Auto

11.9 32%

Teleop

18.1 49%

Endgame

7.0 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.2pts

Blue projected score38.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.9
Score range: 8–83
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 47 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

114.3Season APEX145.8

8.7Auto11.9

23.3Teleop18.1

2.6Endgame7

10Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	6
teleop	5	10
endgame	1	6
foul	15	0
total	25	22

Result

Final score

25 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 22.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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