Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.64 – 233.96

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±12.2

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 1.39Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 23.53Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 37.72Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.7 ±11.6

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 41.46Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 59.47Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 133.03Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8084, 10064, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8084, 10064, 10396

Auto

11.3 17%

Teleop

37.4 56%

Endgame

17.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6838, 8169, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

234 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6838, 8169, 7632

Auto

37.8 17%

Teleop

135.6 62%

Endgame

44.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.6pts

Blue projected score234pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171.3
Score range: 35–262
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.6Season APEX302.7

11.3Auto37.8

37.4Teleop135.6

17.7Endgame44.6

23Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	65
teleop	65	74
endgame	6	48
foul	15	5
total	100	192

Result

Final score

100 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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