Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.9 – 218.1

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.1 ±12.2

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 38.98Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 134.98Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX -19.06Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.7 ±11.7

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 198.05Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 1.23Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 18.82Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6014, 8725, 10907

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6014, 8725, 10907

Auto

30.3 19%

Teleop

91.2 59%

Endgame

33.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4481, 11300, 7742

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4481, 11300, 7742

Auto

26.4 13%

Teleop

126.3 62%

Endgame

50.3 25%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.9pts

Blue projected score218.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.2
Score range: 127–246
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 155.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.1Season APEX402.7

30.3Auto26.4

91.2Teleop126.3

33.9Endgame50.3

56Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	46
teleop	79	138
endgame	94	27
foul	10	0
total	225	211

Result

Final score

225 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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